Overrating is a type of overconfidence bias where people rate their performance higher than it really is. Overconfidence bias shows up in 3 different ways – Overrating, assumption of prediction abilities and unrealistic optimism. Whether you are a student, an employee, a driver, a lover or a normal man, you exhibit overconfidence in your abilities whether you realize it or not.
87% of the MBA students at Stanford rated their academic performance as above the median. 93% of US people think they are above average drivers( Read Study). 84% Frenchmen believe they are above average lovers. 65% of Americans consider themselves above average in intelligence( Read Study). Various studies have proved this time and again The problem is, we consider ourselves as a part of the best even when we are not. The dictionary definition of overconfidence bias is where the subjective confidence of your assumptions is greater than the objective accuracy.Īs human beings, we like to feel good about ourselves. You can read about all the cognitive biases of the mind. This article is on the topic – The Overconfidence Bias. I am writing a set of posts to help you identify how your brain plays games with you. But the numbers hold a mirror showing the overconfidence in people. If you tell people that most consider themselves above average, they retaliate saying “But I really am better than most people at my job.” Yet, everyone seems overconfident about their own ability. As per math, only 50% should lie above the average or median. If I ask your colleagues, 60-70% of them would consider themselves above average too. I am guessing you considered yourself an above-average performer at work. You and I are far more vulnerable to overconfidence than we assume. You can spot overconfidence in others with ease but not your own. 
Yet, overconfidence bias is the biggest of all the biases of the human brain.
If I ask you, “Are you overconfident?” you will answer, “No, of course not.” We consider ourselves better than we really are.Īt work, how would you rate yourself? Do you consider yourself an above-average or below-average performer? Remember your answer. Overconfidence bias is the tendency to overestimate our talents and abilities.
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